「原油」4.9原油做涨做空 精准行情预测附黄金解套

　　消xiao息xi面mian：周zhou三san(4月yue8日ri)美mei元yuan指zhi数shu走zou高gao，收shou复fu100关guan口kou，因yin新xin冠guan疫yi情qing接jie近jin见jian顶ding的de乐le观guan情qing绪xu消xiao退tui；澳ao元yuan和he纽niu元yuan领ling涨zhangG10货huo币bi。金jin价jia小xiao幅fu下xia滑hua，现xian货huo黄huang金jin收shou于yu1647.72美mei元yuan/盎ang司si，美mei元yuan走zou强qiang令ling金jin价jia承cheng压ya，美股大da涨zhang也ye削xiao弱ruo了liao避bi险xian黄huang金jin的de吸xi引yin力li。有you关guan俄e罗luo斯si准zhun备bei减jian产chan160万wan桶tong/日ri的de消xiao息xi推tui动dong油you价jia飙biao升sheng，美mei油you涨zhang逾yu10%，升sheng上shang26美mei元yuan/桶tong，上shang周zhou美mei国guo国guo内nei原yuan油you产chan量liang减jian少shao60万wan桶tong也ye支zhi撑cheng了liao油you价jia。

　　黄huang金jin：现xian货huo黄huang金jin延yan续xu前qian一yi交jiao易yi日ri跌die势shi，震zhen荡dang微wei跌die。周zhou二er黄huang金jin一yi度du下xia挫cuo逾yu1%，主zhu要yao疫yi情qing重zhong灾zai区qu确que诊zhen病bing例li增zeng长chang放fang缓huan的de迹ji象xiang提ti振zhen股gu市shi，令ling黄huang金jin的de避bi险xian吸xi引yin力li有you所suo降jiang低di。同tong时shi欧ou洲zhou表biao示shi将jiang逐zhu步bu放fang开kai限xian制zhi，且qie美mei国guo也ye表biao示shi最zui快kuai四si周zhou内nei将jiang会hui重zhong启qi经jing济ji，这zhe也ye令ling市shi场chang对dui于yu经jing济ji下xia行xing担dan忧you情qing绪xu缓huan解jie。值zhi得de关guan注zhu的de是shi，大da西xi洋yang两liang岸an通tong常chang亦yi步bu亦yi趋qu的de金jin价jia再zai次ci出chu现xian分fen歧qi，日ri内nei关guan注zhu美联储纪ji要yao。

　　黄huang金jin日ri线xian来lai看kan：低di位wei持chi续xu回hui升sheng；MACD金jin叉cha，KDJ指zhi数shu位wei于yu逼bi近jin80，暗an示shi多duo头tou仍reng处chu强qiang势shi，短duan期qi可ke能neng进jin一yi步bu走zou高gao。尽jin管guan金jin价jia周zhou二er走zou低di，但dan仍reng位wei于yu1640上shang方fang（1703.39-1451.55下xia跌die趋qu势shi的de76.4%回hui撤che位wei），因yin此ci多duo头tou目mu前qian仍reng占zhan优you势shi。上shang行xing目mu标biao先xian看kan向xiang1660美mei元yuan一yi线xian，其qi次ci是shi周zhou一yi触chu及ji的de高gao点dian1670一yi线xian，进jin一yi步bu上shang行xing，则ze看kan向xiang周zhou二er高gao点dian1679美mei元yuan一yi线xian，该gai点dian位wei若ruo被bei突tu破po则ze有you望wang试shi探tan3月yue9日ri高gao点dian1703美mei元yuan。若ruo金jin价jia失shi守shou1640一yi线xian支zhi撑cheng，这zhe是shi1703.39-1451.55下xia跌die趋qu势shi的de76.4%回hui撤che位wei，同tong时shi也ye是shi本ben周zhou前qian两liang个ge交jiao易yi日ri触chu及ji的de低di位wei附fu近jin，将jiang增zeng加jia短duan线xian看kan空kong信xin号hao。跌die破po后hou进jin一yi步bu留liu意yi61.8%回hui撤che位wei1606一yi线xian，再zai度du失shi守shou，料liao回hui撤che至zhi下xia方fang1600关guan口kou再zai度du下xia跌die，则ze关guan注zhu1580一yi线xian，这zhe既ji受shou20日ri均jun线xian支zhi撑cheng，又you接jie近jin50%回hui撤che位wei。

　　黄huang金jin4小xiao时shi来lai看kan：区qu间jian震zhen荡dang；目mu前qianMACD形xing成cheng死si叉cha，KDJ死si叉cha，表biao明ming金jin价jia看kan涨zhang情qing绪xu有you所suo消xiao退tui，但dan警jing惕ti短duan期qi回hui落luo的de危wei险xian。下xia方fang支zhi撑cheng先xian留liu意yi1640一yi线xian，这zhe是shi周zhou二er触chu及ji低di点dian，同tong时shi也ye接jie近jin此ci前qian区qu间jian上shang轨gui附fu近jin，具ju有you一yi定ding支zhi撑cheng性xing，一yi旦dan该gai点dian位wei失shi守shou，料liao再zai度du回hui归gui1570-1645区qu间jian宽kuan幅fu震zhen荡dang。下xia看kan1625一yi线xian附fu近jin，这zhe受shou布bu林lin带dai中zhong轨gui及ji30日ri均jun线xian双shuang重zhong支zhi撑cheng，若ruo失shi守shou，进jin一yi步bu看kan向xiang1607一yi线xian，这zhe是shi1703-1451.55这zhe波bo下xia跌die的de61.8%回hui撤che位wei。下xia破po后hou留liu意yi1580一yi线xian附fu近jin，这zhe既ji是shi布bu林lin带dai下xia轨gui处chu，又you是shi1703-1451.55这zhe波bo下xia跌die的de50%回hui撤che位wei，在zai4月yue初chu被bei多duo次ci测ce试shi，有you较jiao强qiang支zhi撑cheng性xing。只zhi要yao金jin价jia不bu再zai度du破po位wei1640下xia方fang，后hou续xu走zou势shi料liao以yi看kan多duo为wei主zhu。上shang行xing方fang面mian，先xian关guan注zhu前qian一yi交jiao易yi日ri高gao位wei1679美mei元yuan一yi线xian，突tu破po后hou料liao重zhong新xin测ce试shi前qian期qi高gao点dian1703。综zong合he来lai看kan，今jin日ri短duan线xian操cao作zuo思si路lu上shang卢lu金jin迎ying个ge人ren建jian议yi以yi回hui调diao做zuo多duo为wei主zhu，反fan弹dan高gao空kong为wei辅fu，上shang方fang短duan期qi重zhong点dian关guan注zhu1656-1658一yi线xian阻zu力li，下xia方fang短duan期qi重zhong点dian关guan注zhu1636-1638一yi线xian支zhi撑cheng。

　　黄huang金jin最zui新xin操cao作zuo建jian议yi：

　　1、黄huang金jin上shang方fang反fan弹dan不bu破po1656-1658一yi线xian做zuo空kong，止zhi损sun4美mei金jin，目mu标biao看kan1645-1643一yi线xian；

　　2、黄huang金jin下xia方fang回hui调diao不bu破po1636-1638一yi线xian做zuo多duo，止zhi损sun4美mei金jin，目mu标biao看kan1640-1642一yi线xian；

　　3、策ce略lue仅jin供gong参can考kao，盘pan间jian行xing情qing实shi时shi变bian化hua具ju体ti进jin场chang点dian位wei以yi卢lu金jin迎ying微wei信xin(ljy8171实shi盘pan为wei准zhun；

　　原yuan油you：油you价jia大da涨zhang，美mei原yuan油you涨zhang逾yu10%，因yin市shi场chang预yu期qi产chan油you国guo或huo将jiang达da成cheng协xie议yi，此ci前qian媒mei体ti报bao导dao暗an示shi俄e罗luo斯si将jiang减jian产chan，阿a尔er及ji利li亚ya能neng源yuan部bu长chang表biao示shi，预yu计ji会hui议yi将jiang“富fu有you成cheng果guo”。原yuan油you从cong技ji术shu面mian来lai看kan，因yin投tou资zi者zhe对dui于yu周zhou四siOPEC+会hui议yi抱bao有you期qi待dai。同tong时shi美mei欧ou多duo国guo欲yu逐zhu步bu解jie除chu封feng锁suo措cuo施shi，令ling市shi场chang的de乐le观guan情qing绪xu回hui升sheng；日ri线xianMACD和heKDJ金jin叉cha运yun行xing，指zhi示shi中zhong长chang线xian仍reng有you继ji续xu上shang涨zhang动dong能neng。但dan上shang方fang近jin期qi阻zu力li位wei较jiao多duo，油you价jia短duan期qi走zou势shi可ke能neng受shou到dao压ya制zhi。油you价jia整zheng体ti仍reng维wei持chi在zai19.27-30.00区qu间jian宽kuan幅fu震zhen荡dang。上shang方fang初chu步bu阻zu力li在zai27.40附fu近jin，进jin一yi步bu阻zu力li在zai本ben周zhou高gao点dian28.24附fu近jin，该gai位wei置zhi同tong时shi靠kao近jin布bu林lin线xian中zhong轨gui，阻zu力li相xiang对dui较jiao强qiang，若ruo顶ding破po该gai位wei置zhi，则ze油you价jia有you望wang进jin一yi步bu冲chong击ji30心xin理li关guan口kou，该gai位wei置zhi阻zu力li相xiang对dui较jiao强qiang，一yi旦dan突tu破po该gai关guan口kou，将jiang将jiang大da幅fu增zeng加jia看kan涨zhang信xin号hao，并bing有you望wang冲chong击ji3月yue9日ri大da跌die的de跳tiao空kong缺que口kou36.34附fu近jin阻zu力li；

　　不bu过guo，市shi场chang仍reng在zai关guan注zhu美mei国guo对dui于yu减jian产chan的de表biao态tai，这zhe对dui于yu达da成cheng减jian产chan具ju有you关guan键jian影ying响xiang；且qieKDJ在zai超chao买mai区qu域yu向xiang下xia拐guai头tou，有you结jie成cheng死si叉cha的de迹ji象xiang，短duan线xian仍reng然ran需xu要yao警jing惕ti油you价jia震zhen荡dang下xia跌die和he低di位wei震zhen荡dang的de可ke能neng，下xia方fang初chu步bu支zhi撑cheng在zai10日ri均jun线xian23.55附fu近jin，该gai位wei置zhi同tong时shi也ye是shi周zhou二er及ji上shang周zhou五wu触chu及ji的de低di点dian，若ruo失shi守shou该gai位wei置zhi，则ze油you价jia可ke能neng重zhong新xin试shi探tan20心xin理li关guan口kou支zhi撑cheng；综zong合he来lai看kan，今jin日ri短duan线xian操cao作zuo思si路lu上shang卢lu金jin迎ying个ge人ren建jian议yi以yi回hui调diao做zuo多duo为wei主zhu，反fan弹dan高gao空kong为wei辅fu，上shang方fang短duan期qi重zhong点dian关guan注zhu27.6-27.8一yi线xian阻zu力li，下xia方fang短duan期qi重zhong点dian关guan注zhu25.0-25.2一yi线xian支zhi撑cheng。

　　原yuan油you最zui新xin操cao作zuo建jian议yi：

　　1、原yuan油you上shang方fang反fan弹dan不bu破po27.6-27.8一yi线xian做zuo空kong，止zhi损sun0.4美mei金jin，目mu标biao看kan26.4-26.2一yi线xian；

　　2、原yuan油you下xia方fang回hui调diao不bu破po25.0-25.2一yi线xian做zuo多duo，止zhi损sun0.4美mei金jin，目mu标biao看kan26.6-26.8一yi线xian；

　　3、行xing情qing千qian变bian万wan化hua、点dian位wei仅jin供gong参can考kao，投tou资zi有you风feng险xian、入ru市shi需xu谨jin慎shen，详xiang情qing关guan注zhu卢lu金jin迎ying本ben人ren官guan||薇wei：ljy8171

　　在zai金jin融rong投tou资zi中zhong，只zhi要yao一yi旦dan进jin入ru了liao交jiao易yi，就jiu会hui面mian临lin不bu同tong程cheng度du上shang的de风feng险xian，所suo以yi投tou资zi者zhe首shou先xian最zui为wei重zhong要yao的de一yi点dian就jiu是shi把ba握wo控kong制zhi住zhu入ru场chang交jiao易yi时shi间jian。而er投tou资zi者zhe的de持chi仓cang时shi间jian与yu风feng险xian也ye是shi息xi息xi相xiang关guan的de：持chi仓cang时shi间jian越yue短duan，所suo面mian临lin的de风feng险xian就jiu会hui越yue小xiao；而er持chi仓cang时shi间jian越yue长chang，所suo面mian临lin的de时shi间jian将jiang会hui越yue长chang，所suo以yi控kong制zhi持chi仓cang时shi间jian是shi很hen重zhong要yao的de.